Risk for risk’s sake?

We enter another week beginning with a stupendous market rise. With more and more experts sounding words of caution on this market, the bulls seem to respond ever more resolutely by moving the market to new highs. We have seen this movie before. We don’t know when it will end, but we know it is not a happy ending. We need the financial equivalent of the term “post 9/11”. Have we really learned nothing? Isn’t the value of a stock determined by what the return on your investment is likely to be? Once again, the riskiest stocks seem to have the lowest return on your investment going forward, but are the stocks that are rising the fastest.

 

I understand taking risks when they make sense. For instance, investing in emerging markets makes sense because these economies are likely to have much faster growth over the coming years. So, the risk you take may be rewarded by larger returns than safer investments. Small, financially less stable U.S. companies do not fit this profile. As a group, they are more likely to be losers moving forward than their higher quality counterparts (who have cash to fund operations and growth) and there is no proof that they are about to enter a period of strong growth.

 

Investors should approach this market with great caution. They should let their gains ride, but with a very short chain from here. Capture profits and limit losses as we move forward in an overheated market. Live to fight another day by remembering we are in a “post 2000” market.

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