Senator Harkin is someone who has at times impressed us by seeming to stand up for the common man. Yes, at age 69 he now stands firmly against the people and for the insurance companies. He wants to make sure that one of the most abused products on the market is not regulated with rules to protect consumers. Iowa has a lot of insurance company employees and, we assume, contributes handsomely to the coffers of the Senator.

At almost 70 years of age, it is time for anyone to “do the right thing”. In this case, the right thing is simple and apparent to anyone. Yet, for a change, we are close to Senator Harkin and our elected officials acting in a manner that is to our direct detriment. Thanks a bunch!!

Let take two investors, each of whom has $100,000 to invest. Investor A (the tortoise) gets 20% of market up and 20% of market downs. Investor B (the hare) gets 100% of market ups and 100% of market downs. Now, let’s add some volatile market returns (certainly not beyond the realm of possibility). The market goes up 50% and falls 40% in year 2.

Investor B has a lot more fun at cocktail parties than Investor A. Our hare (B) gets to brag about the huge returns in year one, while the tortoise (A) tries his best not to discuss his portfolio. Arithmetically, our hare ends up with a 5% annual average return (up 50% and down 40%). Our poor tortoise averages only 1% per year (up 10% and down 8%).

The hare, unfortunately, has only $90,000 of his original $100,000 investment left after year 2. Perhaps his excitement was worth $10,000 but we are not that interested in excitement here at Capstone. The tortoise has $101,200 to show for his investment. He averaged less arithmetically, had less excitement, but saw the return of his principal along with a small return on his principal.

When the odds of favorable outcomes are heavily on your side, it may be better to be a hare. When the odds are more neutral or against you, think hard about being a tortoise. The tortoise can make a bit of money in a turbulent environment while the hare loses his.

Today Senator Dodd dropped from his financial reform packet the demand of a fiduciary duty on those who give investment advice. Simply put, this means that you the client will continue to be taken advantage of by the vultures that put themselves first at all times and that this will remain legal!

There are a myriad of financial products that will continue to be sold due to their high commissions and the story selling that surrounds them. Whether they are appropriate for you will continue to be up to you to determine. Of course, whether these are good solutions for you or not will require you to study investments and financial planning for a few years as many of these products are complex and intentionally opaque. An equity indexed annuity is a prime example of the difficulties you will encounter in understanding and evaluating whether something is a good investment. Not only are these complicated (though the sales pitch is simple), but you are unlikely to know about similar or better products available with FDIC insurance that may be preferable. Why won’t you know about them? Because they pay far smaller commissions so they will not be presented by sales people who do not have to put your interests first.

The thought that you would pay someone for investment advice (whether that is by fee or commissions) who is not legally bound to at least try to put your interests first is absurd. That the financial services industry at this late date would campaign to avoid this level of responsibility is deplorable. Given all that we have gone through, you would hope that putting clients first would be acceptable to all moving forward.

What should you do? I think there are two questions that should be foremost in your mind when dealing with anyone in financial services (insurance, stock brokers, financial planners, etc.). First, ask them if they are acting as a fiduciary? If they do not respond in the affirmative, make sure you ask them how they are compensated for a transaction and how much they are compensated for the transaction. If they are not forthright in disclosing these answers (e.g. they say their compensation is built into the product and you don’t pay anything additional), then you need to run for the exits. If you get a reasonable answer, then you may choose to proceed with the transaction. Just remember-caveat emptor.

The “sales forces” of financial services are out there now beating the drums for this new decade. Surely after a poor decade we should return to the norm by having excellent returns on our investments, shouldn’t we? Unfortunately, this decade is not really setting up to be any easier for investors than the previous one.

Stocks are certainly not beginning the decade by being cheap by historic measures, so we should expect an average to below average return. Thus, the range bound or secular bear market is likely to continue for some time in equity markets. Unfortunately, commodities and bonds are no longer cheap like they were at the beginning of the past decade. So, returns will be still tough to come by moving forward.

We think the key moving forward will be to be tactical with your risk budget. By that, you or your advisor needs to keep an eye on what are the risks and what are the potential returns of investments. So, if the stock of a great company has fallen to a very low price, buying the stock may increase your risk but be justified by potentially large gains. On the other side, if a stock is very expensive by historic measures it may have rather limited potential appreciation and considerable potential loss. To sell that position and reduce your risk may be the prudent decision. 

So, while investors traditionally have to decide on how much risk to take and stuck with that decision, we believe the prudent course is to adjust your risk budget by the opportunity available to garner good returns. You might still average the same amount of portfolio risk through a market cycle, but get to that average in a way that benefits your bottom line.

We have long held that for us personally retirement was not a goal. Restylement, with its ability to give you more time to pursue the things that are most important to you, is what appeals to us. There is something that we don’t like about retirement- there is a connotation of withdrawing in the word that does not appeal to us. We know retirement will still be the goal for many, but others will increasingly choose restylement as their goal. The ability to do the things you are passionate about and spend less time doing the things that you don’t enjoy.

This past week we were on “vacation”, but it did not work out that well. We found there were pressing work issues that needed to be dealt with during our time away. So, it occurred to us to re-think vacation a bit also. It seems to us that “vacation” is a corollary to “retirement”. The root word “vacate” has to do with leaving, emptying, etc. Our goal when we go away is really not vacating, but recreation. We want to re-create, not merely empty. Our goal in getting away is to refresh, step back, enhance, get new ideas flowing, etc. So, we did not really have our “vacation” spoiled by having to do a bit of work while away. We were still able to enjoy all the benefits of the time away and have it serve us well in “re-charging” for the road ahead. So- no retirement and no vacation, but bring on restylement and recreation. They both sound good to us.

Their approaches are extremely different (Jim is certainly the more offensive of the two to us), but ultimately they both share only one goal-self promotion. They are the anti-fiduciaries. They do not put your best interests first. They are all about promoting themselves. If you perish as fodder in their self promotion scheme, they will not miss a meal nor feel a moment’s sorrow.  I am pretty sure if Warren Buffet listened in daily to Mr. Cramer and followed all his advice he could have had his home foreclosed upon by now. Cramer uses the shotgun approach, trying to hit a home run by taking 100 swings in every direction. So, he usually has a home run or two to remind you about. The other ideas strike out and are replaced by another hundred swings for the fences.

Suzie’s approach is far more demure but just as lacking in ultimate usefulness. She likes to make sweeping generalizations (“X is a bad thing to do as an investor”). The problem is she has not taken the time or effort to understand your unique situation and needs, so her “advice” might be right for over 50% of listeners but dead wrong for you. You become the fodder in her fame.

A fiduciary, plain and simple, is charged with putting your interests first. The person may be inept and may not give you good counsel. However, they at least must attempt to give you good counsel. That would seem like a good first step in evaluating who you should listen to.

We know it is a little late for New Year’s Resolutions, but………..How about it! Why not tune out Jim and Suzie and devote that time to something that will add to the quality of your life?

Charlatan then proceeds to give you more info on their marvelous returns going back to 2004. When you come to the disclosures at the bottom (you know, the small print that nobody reads), things start to get a bit alarming. First is this potential problem- “ The performance data represents a combination of hypothetical and actual past performance.” Oh? This isn’t all their actual performance? That could be a problem.

“Returns are presented net of an assumed annualized investment management fee of 2.75%, deducted at a rate of 0.6875% quarterly.” Wow, they do have these terrific returns after fees, but that sure is a high fee for money management. We would say they are more than double what fees should be in order to be a fiduciary and put the client’s interests first. But still, they made you all that money in a horrible market after their fees!

Then much further down in the disclosure is the explanation of the combination of hypothetical and actual past performance. “All results prior to October 2009, rely on backtesting. Backtested performance is purely hypothetical and does not reflect actual trading in clients’ accounts. Results were achieved through retroactive application of a strategy that was designed with the benefit of hindsight. Accordingly, these results should not be viewed as indicative of the adviser’s skill.”

Oh my God! From 2004 to now, the actual data started in October of 2009. All the rest of that skilled approach we can pay an outrageous fee for- “purely hypothetical”. Any idiot can put together an investment program that is marvelous for any past period. Hindsight-always 20-20. How will it work in the future? Probably not too well, judging from our hypothetical projections!

Our question is-if the SEC is supposed to protect clients (and advisors who don’t read well or think clearly), why is any Registered Investment Advisor allowed to send out any data that isn’t their actual performance. Performance means, according to Merriam-Webster, something “accomplished”. Hypothetical performance seems like a contradiction in terms. Something accomplished, but in this case we are just pretending that we accomplished it. Come on, SEC. Let’s protect somebody!

Despite the fantastic finish of 2009, the S&P is still off 24.9% from its October 2007 peak. That is still a huge drawdown (i.e. loss from peak to now) that investors cannot afford. That is why we still believe that active investment management using a wider playing field than the traditional stocks, bonds, and cash is required in order to help you achieve your financial goals. Our management style has worked well through this period and we feel it will continue to produce results in 2010 and beyond.

In terms of what to expect in 2010, we do not know what the market will serve up. There is still momentum in the equity market and lots of money on the sidelines that could push prices higher as it comes into the market. It is our feeling, however, that it is a time for caution. While very high quality investments seem to be priced around their historic averages, poor quality companies seem very expensive and at risk of a large tumble. So, we believe that quality large companies are the area to overweight going forward and low quality investments should be underweighted.

We expect there to be some opportunities to enter into investments at low prices as the year goes on. As always, we will try to take advantage of inefficient market pricing of assets.

Lastly, we want to thank each and every one of your for your loyalty and faith in us over the years. As we look at the millions and millions of your dollars that we are entrusted to manage, we are truly honored by your commitment to us. Every day we feel fortunate to be where we are in this difficult environment and seek to continue to earn your continued loyalty. We really mean it- Thank you!!  

It was a year that came in like a bear and went out like a bull. All told, that left us with a surprisingly strong bull year. When the days were darkest, we think investors panicked and sold when assets were the cheapest, best buys we will see for a very long time. How else can we explain investors dumping GE stock for less than $6 a share? Oh, but that was months ago and memories are short. We now have investors willing to drop their money on assets that look very risky to us. What will 2010 bring us? We think it will most likely bring us some more big ups and downs on the roller coaster.

Is it time to hold ‘em or fold’em? As an intelligent gambler, that should depend on what you are holding. It is, in our opinion, no time to bluff when you don’t have much in your hand. Look to take some profits in areas like high yield bonds and stocks with little or no earnings. If you are holding some aces, we would stick with them for now. Keep your eye on the game however. If is turns against you once more, don’t be afraid to fold ‘em and live to fight another day.

It was a terrific year which did much to restore account values. However, it appears unrealistic that this bull run can go on too much longer. As we move from underpriced back to overpriced, the odds start to stack up against us in the short run. Be careful and thankful as we welcome in a new year!

That is, reducing your level of investment in high yield bonds and/or low-quality stocks. We would not advise abandoning them altogether but taking some reasonable profits. If, on the other hand, you are late to the party and are now thinking about taking money from the sidelines and placing it back into the market we would suggest you do that with caution. Specifically, you don’t want to chase gains that have taken assets to above fair value. Many parts of the market are currently overheated and likely will not produce above-average results going forward.

Looking at it in another way, you need to determine whether the odds are on your side or against you going forward. They certainly don’t seem to us to be strongly in your favor. On the other hand, we certainly have no reason to be sure that the market will not continue to run from here. A plan to cautiously reinvest might be the most prudent. You could plan to buy into the market monthly for the next six or eight months. If we did then see a market correction, you could use that opportunity to alter your plan and  purchase more aggressively into the market.

Your focus should be on buying high quality assets on which you have conviction that they will do well for years to come. That should be a recipe for success as we move forward through turbulent waters.